Koper wordt vaak aanschouwd als de barometer voor de wereldeconomie en zou volgend jaar fors in prijs gaan stijgen. Volgens zakenbanken Goldman Sachs en Bank of America zou dat te maken hebben met de transitie naar hernieuwbare energie en de onvermijdelijke krapte langs de aanbodzijde.
Koper, een metaal dat vele toepassingen kent maar voornamelijk gekend is als goede geleider van elektriciteit, gaat volgend jaar in waarde stijgen volgens de zakenbanken Goldman Sachs en Bank of America.
Het zachte rode metaal is ook gekend als barometer voor de wereldeconomie. Hoge koperprijzen betekenen dat het goed gaat met de wereldeconomie hoewel dat deze keer vreemd lijkt vermits men een recessie verwacht in 2023.
De prijsstijging zou te maken hebben met de versnelde transitie naar hernieuwbare energie. Het gevolg is dat er langs de aanbodzijde een krapte zal ontstaan. De verhoogde vraag naar het rode metaal zal niet kunnen worden bijgehouden met als gevolg dat de koperprijzen zullen gaan stijgen.
Vooruitzichten
Op dit moment noteert koper aan 8.500 dollar per ton. Goldman Sachs heeft onlangs zijn voorspelling aangepast van 9.000 dollar per ton naar 11.000 dollar per ton voor 2023. Hun analisten verwachten zelfs dat de prijs kan doorstijgen naar 12.000 dollar in 2024.
A tightly balanced market and minimal global copper stocks (less than two weeks’ consumption) will sustain prices in 2023. Copper’s longer-term prospects are supported by demand from the energy transition.
Maar niet iedereen ziet de koperprijzen stijgen de komende jaren. Zakenbanken Fitch en BNP Paribas Fortis verwachten dat de prijzen zullen schommelen tussen 6.500 dollar en 9.000 dollar per ton in 2023 en 2024.
Bronnen: Ellioth Smith – CNBC
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